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Political dynamics of Bihar

Now its a taste for Chief minister Nithish kumar's micro engeeniring in coming assembly election after the fall of lokshabha election last year.
It is yet to be seen how Lalu prasad yadav's RJD and Nitish Kumar's JDU tieing their knot to defeat NDA , who is holding strong and force one time foe to became friends.

But it seems Lalu prasad is more intrested to pull Nithish kumar down than compete with NDA, as can be easily understood by his latest praise for Jiten ram manjhi, the ex cm of bihar . Why Mr lalu is trying to include Mr manjhi ? What made him to issue that statement? Knowing that it will affect Janta dal merger , it can be collapsed before taking a shape.

Any one who knows caste dynamics of bihar can easily understand this , as mahadalit community presence is huge aprrox 17%, that will help a lot to RJD and mr Lalu prasad.
As he still enjoy MY equition, that means muslims, yadav and mahadalits will become major force if they can be polarised one side along with congress base I.e. some upperclass & backward class voters.

So basically he is playing a calculated risk where he can get approx 50% votes 16.5% muslims, 12% yadav , 17% mahadalit and 7% congress voters. This can be achieved at certain level if possiblity of mr manjhi and congress coming on one stage leaving Nithish kumar sidelined.

But There is a condition,  if any other players doesn't come in play. Like owasi's MIM is planning to make a foray and if this happens it will destroy lalu prasad's political future.

Coming to nitish Kumar, now he is in soup , mr manjhi has become bhasmasur for him, till one year ago no one knew him but due to nitish kumar's micro engeeniring he is know a leader of 17% mahadalits , if we don't consider Mr paswan here. At current his support base is only koiri and kurmi , not 100% koiri as they will go with Mr Upendra kushwaha, but he is still trying his best to make a hole in BJP'S vote base as recently he included a subcaste of bramin into obc category.

He can still make a comeback if lalu prasad makes him a leader and form an alliance, but it doesn't seems, in this case mr manjhi will not come on board,  that means he will go with NDA , so in this senario 17% of mahadalit vote is defenetily going to NDA as Paswan is a part of NDA also Upendra Kushwaha , who is going to take koiri vote with him for NDA and owasi's MIM is going to break MY equition and not to forget papu yadav and ramkripal yadav they too have papular vote base among yadav's, So what will be left with lalu , nitish and company.

Here are the summary , if this all happens as above that means its NDA government in making. Just wait and watch.....


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